Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
'Money is not just about greed or accumulation. It gives you freedom, dignity and choice. And you have every right to all three.'
'The danger is that when the music stops, the fall will be sudden, faster, and deeper than anyone expects,' warns Debashis Basu.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Trent, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Eternal, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the gainers. On the other hand, Tata Steel, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and PowerGrid were the laggards.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended 2.5 per cent higher on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent.
The most common mistake is investing without assessing suitability and long-term implications.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
Platform-style partnerships between global investors and Indian developers are expected to gain further traction over the next few years. This comes as institutional capital increasingly shifts from one-off asset acquisitions to scalable, long-term strategies.
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing Rs 14,167 crore so far this month, largely driven by favourable global cues and robust domestic fundamentals. Notably, this inflow has come despite the ongoing military tensions between India and Pakistan.
'Only four or five original companies remain; the rest have been replaced every decade as sectors evolve or leadership shifts.' 'Companies that fail to adapt -- like many textile mills from the 1970s and shipping firms from the 1980s -- disappear.' 'Benchmark indices reward those who reinvent themselves in line with economic demands.'
India is well-stocked with inventories of crude oil and key petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), to deal with short-term disruptions as the war intensifies in West Asia, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher on Wednesday as a sharp decline in IT blue-chip stocks restricted the rally in the markets.
In a bid to enhance its equity exposure and earn higher returns for its nearly 65 million subscribers, the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is considering reinvesting 50 per cent of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redemption proceeds back into equity. Sources close to the development said a proposal regarding this was discussed in the investment committee (IC) meeting in October last year, and the recommendation has been sent to the Central Board of Trustees (CBT), the apex decision-making body of the EPFO for its approval. The next CBT meeting is scheduled to be held on Saturday.
India and Pakistan have posted the highest gains among developing Asia-Pacific equity markets, posting much stronger returns than those in 2004
Shares of Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent of online broking platform Groww, soared nearly 30 per cent on their market debut on Wednesday, defying the recent trend of muted listings. The stock opened at Rs 112 and hit a high of Rs 134.4 before settling at Rs 128.85 on the NSE - a gain of 28.85 per cent over its issue price of Rs 100.
Benchmark BSE Sensex fell 558 points on Thursday amid heavy selling in IT shares, as concerns over AI-led disruptions and waning hopes of a Fed rate cut after firm US economic data weighed on investor sentiment.
More than a third of 83 mainboard IPOs this year ended their debut sessions in the red, with losses of up to 35 per cent.
Analysts agree China, Greece and US Fed developments need careful monitoring but India should gain, over time, from relative rise of the dollar and fall in commodity prices.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
Shares of brokerage-related companies nosedived 18 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed raising securities transaction tax on commodity futures to 0.05 per cent from 0.02 per cent in the Union Budget 2026-27.
India's market regulator is moving ahead to include real estate investment trusts (Reits) in benchmark indices in a phased manner, Sebi chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey said, while asserting that the regulator was working to strengthen the link between infrastructure building and the markets.
Among Sensex firms, Trent, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Asian Paints, Eternal and ITC were the major laggards. Selling in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank also dragged the key indices. However, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
From the Sensex firms, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Bajaj Finance and Reliance Industries were among the major laggards. However, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Electronics, UltraTech Cement and Maruti were among the gainers.
The expansion in equity market volumes is driven by retail speculators indulging in heavy trading of complex derivatives that are economically unproductive, say Praveen Chakravarthy and T V Somanathan.
Most first-time investors may be better served by diversified options such as flexicap or multi-cap funds, which already hold pharma and healthcare stocks.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
The Tata Group and TCS have announced a multi-dimensional partnership with OpenAI to build AI infrastructure, offer joint solutions, and train Indian youth, aiming to position India as a global AI hub.
Stock market investors this week would track the renewed tariff tensions between the US and China, domestic inflation data, besides, quarterly earnings from blue-chips HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries would also drive the momentum in equities, analysts said.
Fund managers are divided on the prospects for beaten-down information technology (IT) stocks, reflected in the wide variance in equity mutual funds' (MFs) sector exposure. An analysis by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research shows that while six large fund houses were overweight the sector relative to its weight in the Nifty 200 index, five were underweight as of October 2025. UTI MF had the highest exposure at 17.8 per cent, while SBI MF sat at the bottom with 5 per cent.
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target.
Inflows into mutual fund (MF) schemes via systematic investment plans (SIPs) have topped Rs 3 trillion for the first time in a calendar year, as investors increasingly rely on the staggered investment route amid market volatility.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip ICICI Bank. Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 148.14 points or 0.18 per cent to settle at 83,311.01.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Trent, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were the major laggards among Sensex stocks. However, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
'Earnings growth will be the main driver of India's market in 2026, with profits expected to rise 9% to 10% in H2 FY26 and accelerate to 12% to 15% in FY27.'
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India's (Irdai's) decision to allow insurers to hedge risks through equity derivatives will help them manage market volatility and protect policyholder returns. However, this move is unlikely to alter their investment strategies.
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